| It's a betting obsession that has swept the horse | | | | let me explain the logic that causes these horses to |
| racing world - the almost holy grail like quest to find | | | | be so profitable to lay... |
| false favourites that can be layer for profit with very | | | | Class 1 races are high profile, they are the ones |
| little risk. At one point it would have been easy, back | | | | always featured in the papers, the various racing TV |
| in the days where 99% of punters got all their info | | | | shows and pundits will always spend a long time |
| from the limited cards in the back of the newspaper. | | | | dissecting them before and after the race. This is |
| But times have changed. Now you can examine | | | | why they are such a little gold mine. |
| every race a horse has ever run in great detail via | | | | The 'Sunday punters' are people who don't bet on a |
| the numerous websites and databases available on | | | | regular basis, they normally bet only at the big racing |
| the internet. This means that low priced horses who | | | | festivals or high profile racing events (hence, selecting |
| don't stand a chance don't stay low priced for very | | | | only class 1 races for this study). They aren't looking |
| long, as huge amounts of people can now identify | | | | to win risk big and win big, they want what they |
| them and lay them on the exchanges. This of course | | | | assume to be a safe bet - purely for the enjoyment |
| makes it a lot harder to find one of these mythical | | | | of it. So they bet on the odds on hot favourites, the |
| 'false favourites' | | | | horses that already have short prices and receive a |
| So I'm going to share with you a simple method of | | | | lot of attention from the pundits. |
| profiting from laying very short priced horses. You | | | | The result - hundreds of thousands of pounds (even |
| see - it's not a case of finding horses that will lose, | | | | millions) being bet on already short priced runners. |
| it's a case of finding horses who's odds are shorter | | | | This has the effect of driving the value out of the |
| than their actual chance of winning. To do this we're | | | | horse. Whilst a very good horse may have a 60% |
| going to be using a simple technique that I like to call | | | | chance of winning a race, if that very good horse |
| 'Milking the Sunday punters' | | | | has been backed into 3/10 odds on then in order for |
| The Sunday punters are a formidable force. I'm not | | | | that bet to offer any value (ie, when the odds are |
| referring to the people who happen to place a bet | | | | higher than the chance of winning) and even be |
| on a Sunday of course; I'm referring to the people | | | | considered as a profitable bet - it's chance of winning |
| that have no real knowledge of horse racing and will | | | | would have to be at least 66.6%. |
| normally just bet for fun. You'd think that these | | | | Horses don't know how much money is being bet on |
| people are of no significance - I certainly used to. | | | | them. Their chance of winning is EXACTLY the same |
| That was until I had a little think about it... | | | | irrelevant of it being priced at evens or 10/1. Backing |
| Did you know that if you had laid £100 on every | | | | such bad value horses would be stupid, the numbers |
| odds on horse in a Class 1 race over the past 6 | | | | are against you and overall you would always show a |
| years, you would have made a profit of £2,970 to | | | | loss. But if you reverse that statement and lay the |
| betfair SP? Whilst I wouldn't advise blindly laying | | | | horse - you will show a profit. |
| these horses, by simply looking for small things that | | | | So to summarize - look for odds on horses in class 1 |
| could cause them to lose and using a staking plan - I | | | | races, see if there is are any factors (no matter how |
| personally have made over £4,000 in the last 3 | | | | small) that may hinder them in the race, even if it's |
| years alone. Of course these aren't the sort of | | | | as small as an unfavourable draw and lay them just |
| profits that will buy you a summer house in the | | | | minutes before the start of the race (as close to the |
| Riviera, when you consider the tiny amount of effort | | | | start as possible for best results). Always pay very |
| required to spot such bets it's not the sort of money | | | | close attention to the big racing festivals and |
| to turn your nose up at. | | | | televised races (on the BBC or C4, where there a lot |
| Now, if you've seen some of my other betting | | | | of people watching) and you will be guaranteed to |
| material you will know that I'm highly critical of people | | | | find bad value horses just prime for the laying. |
| who use statistics without any logic behind them, so | | | | |