| Has a category five hurricane ever hit New York | | | | needs to be several degrees past the threshold of |
| City? Not according to historical records since the | | | | 80 degrees. Major hurricanes usually go through a |
| founding of this country. The closest tropical cyclone | | | | rapid deepening cycle which coincides with the tropical |
| to hit nearby was the "Long Island Express" or the | | | | cyclone sitting over a large area of ocean water at |
| 1938 hurricane. It was a category three that hit part | | | | 83-84 degrees with "hot spots" of 85 or 86 degrees. |
| of Long Island and New England. So, is it that a | | | | The warmer the water, the more energy available |
| category five hurricane can't hit New York City or is | | | | for the hurricane heat engine to make a stronger |
| it simply that the right conditions haven't formed yet? | | | | hurricane. The 1938 hurricane was a category three |
| There are several preconditions that need to take | | | | hurricane near New York, but there is a large |
| place before a hurricane can form. There needs to | | | | difference between a category three and five. The |
| be a pre-existing disturbance, warm ocean water, low | | | | 1938 hurricane also moved very quickly north, limiting |
| atmospheric stability, sufficient Coriolis force, a moist | | | | its time over cooler water, and slowing its weakening. |
| mid level of the atmosphere, low vertical wind shear, | | | | For a category five hurricane to hit New York City, it |
| and divergence in the upper troposphere. Out of all | | | | would have to form well to the south over a larger |
| of the parameters, all are possible for the exception | | | | expanse of warm water. The hurricane would have |
| of possibly one factor. A critical component for | | | | to strengthen to levels that only a few hurricanes |
| hurricane formation, especially major ones, is to have | | | | have ever reached - 175 mph or stronger |
| warm enough water to fuel the hurricane heat | | | | somewhere east of the Bahamas. After this a strong |
| engine. Water temperatures need to be 80 degrees | | | | upper trough would need to approach from the west |
| to a depth of about 50 meters or about 150 feet. | | | | to quickly move the hurricane northward before it |
| Nearly all category five hurricanes are found in the | | | | lost category five strength which is greater than 155 |
| deep tropics. Water temperatures are usually in the | | | | mph. There are problems with this scenario possibly |
| low to mid 80's over a large expanse of ocean | | | | unfolding. First, the strong winds needed to usher the |
| water. There have been three category five | | | | hurricane northward before it lost energy would also |
| hurricanes to hit the United States since records | | | | very likely shear it and cause weakening. Second, |
| began in the late 1800's: The Florida Keys hurricane of | | | | without a push from strong winds aloft, even if the |
| 1935, Camille which hit Mississippi in 1969, and Andrew | | | | hurricane was very strong, it would still weaken as it |
| which hit south Florida in 1992. Out of these three, | | | | encountered cooler water. New York City and the |
| Camille formed in the Caribbean Sea and Andrew and | | | | northeast many times are protected by cooler water |
| the 1935 Hurricane formed north of the Caribbean. | | | | off of the New England coast as well as upper jet |
| These regions of the Caribbean and Atlantic have | | | | stream winds which cause shearing. |
| large areas of warm water. Most category five | | | | So, can a category five hurricane hit New York City? |
| hurricanes never make it as far north as the United | | | | It is extremely unlikely, as close to saying "no" as |
| States. The greatest threat is farther south toward | | | | possible. It is probable that another category three |
| the Caribbean over the open waters of the tropical | | | | will visit New England or New York City. A category |
| Atlantic. | | | | four with top sustained winds between 131-155 mph |
| The Gulf Stream carries warm water northward east | | | | is also very unlikely, but not impossible. Keep in mind |
| of Long Island. The water temperatures are at times | | | | that a category three hurricane in itself could cause |
| sufficient for hurricane development even this far | | | | catastrophic damage with winds of 111-130 mph and |
| north. The Gulf Stream is a narrow ribbon of warm | | | | a major storm tide. So, New York City is most likely |
| water instead of a large expanse found in the deep | | | | safe from ever seeing a category five hurricane, but |
| tropics. For a category five hurricane to form not | | | | extensive damage can still be inflicted by a much |
| only does the water need to be warm, it usually | | | | weaker one. |